National League All-Star Game Victory Means Bad News for Democrats in November?

The National League came from behind to beat the American League 3-1 in the All-Star game last night.

This was written before the game was played — Any Democrats who might have been applauding the National League’s win might want to reconsider:

According to an analysis by University of Minnesota professor Eric J. Ostermeier, who writes the Smart Politics blog, a National League victory in the Mid-Season Classic has preceded every election with double-digit GOP House gains since 1950.

The pattern is similar in the Senate. Since 1948, every time the Republicans have gained at least five Senate seats the National League has won. The flipside, however, is also true in the upper chamber: American League victories have preceded Democratic gains of five or more Senate seats since 1948.
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The type of victory, it seems, is also revealing. Ostermeier’s study found that when the National League rallied late in the game to win, Republicans made landslide House gains, ranging from 34 seats to 54 seats.

In 1994, for example, when the NL tied the game in the 9th before winning an extra inning nailbiter, the GOP picked up 54 seats. In 1966, when the NL won on a 10th inning single, Republicans posted a 47 seat gain.
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“In many of these years with the Republican tsunamis –1966, 1980, 1994 –the National League had dramatic come-from-behind victories,” Ostermeier said.

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“Democrat control of the House is going… going… gone!