The Obama campaign is dangerously close to an unrecoverable tipping point. Look at all these states that are now rated as toss ups:


In 2008, Obama won 11 out of 12 of those states that are now toss-ups. He’ll be lucky to get half of them this time, if that. Overall, Obama only has a comfortable lead in seven of the 58 states — er, 50 states… sorry. The magnitude of Obama’s fall is evident by comparing some of these states that are now toss-ups to 2008. Michigan is a toss-up now, and Obama took that by over 16 points in 2008. Obama took Wisconsin by almost 14 points four years ago and it’s a toss-up today. The One took Pennsylvania by +10 in 2008 — toss-up now. Ditto for Colorado (+9 for Obama in 2008), Iowa (+9.5 in 2008), New Hampshire (+9.6 in 2008), Virginia (+6.3 in 2008).

What a huge difference compared to four years ago, when Obama was +7.6 over McCain nationally at this point before the election. Now Romney is +1 over Obama nationally — and it might be higher than that.

The graphic above doesn’t include “solid” states for Obama and Romney, which are these:


I’m hearing a lot of comparisons with the Walter Mondale drubbing in 1984. If Romney wins it won’t be that big of an ass kicking (I can’t imagine a scenario under which Obama loses California or New York, for example), but things certainly are trending downward for Team Obama, and their “run out the clock” strategy won’t make things better. We’ll find out in just over three weeks.


14 Responses to “Several States Obama Won Handily in 2008 are Now Toss-Ups”

  1. Dexter_Alarius on October 12th, 2012 4:05 pm

    Gawd! Three and a half weeks is an eternity!

  2. Truesoldier__ on October 12th, 2012 4:08 pm

    Just looking at the numbers today and the momentum being in favor of Romney this bodes very badly for Obama. I agree with you that Cali and New York are not in play, but I will say there has been some movement in the polls in Cali as well. There was an 8 point drop in Cali in the Survey USA poll for Obama. Though Obama will still win Cali, that kind of a drop in a solid state could cause some serious fundraising problems.

    Fundraising is going to be a big deal now, especially when you consider Obama wasted a huge chunk of money creating an image of Romney in the commercials that Romney utterly demolished in the debate last week.

  3. Reuters/IPSOS poll showing Romney extends lead by 3 points - Page 2 - Christian Forums on October 12th, 2012 4:58 pm

    [...] The Presidential race does seem to be becoming closer every day. "Several States Obama Won Handily in 2008 are Now Toss-Ups" Several States Obama Won Handily in 2008 are Now Toss-Ups : The Powers That Be [...]

  4. jeffythequick on October 12th, 2012 5:06 pm


    I used this one as well…

  5. jeffythequick on October 12th, 2012 5:20 pm

    Plus, the image that Clint Eastwood had of Obama/Biden created….

  6. Truesoldier__ on October 12th, 2012 5:40 pm

    And that image didn't cost a fortune as it was a true observation instead of a manufactured image.

  7. SignPainterGuy on October 12th, 2012 6:03 pm

    Romney was here in Asheville, NC yesterday with Huck, Ronnie Milsap and numerous lesser-knowns; security kept the riff-raff outside the US Cellular Center (former A`vl Civic Ctr.), but they were amassed outside by the 10s with their posters, er "goofy" posters and Big Bird masks.

    The near capacity crowd inside, almost 8,000, was described as "electric".

  8. Truesoldier__ on October 12th, 2012 6:28 pm

    When I was contracting in Iraq I had the honor to meet a retired Navy Chief who was from a town near to Asheville (I cannot think of the name of it for the life of me). Calvin who keep us in stiches witht he stories he would tell. And he had a great way of dealing with the younger guys who loved to tell "stories" of their exploits.

    He would tell them a story about growing up in Brooklyn, NY (complete with his very Southern accent) and how tough it was to have a farm there. Hauling loads up dirt up to the roof top was a chore he would never forget, but it was worth it when he would harvest his foot long, vine ripe hot dogs…..

  9. SignPainterGuy on October 12th, 2012 7:19 pm

    I`ve had the pleasure of knowing a few of those. I tried pizza trees a couple years, but the bugs and rodents were just too much; I guess pepperoni and mushrooms are just too great a temptation ! ;-)

    What town "sounds" do you think of trying to remember the near-Asheville town ? I`ll try to help.

  10. SignPainterGuy on October 12th, 2012 7:21 pm

    Which makes me wonder why it costs so much to campaign ! Why not just tell the truth in a few good venues and stand on it !? (rhetorical Q)

  11. Truesoldier__ on October 12th, 2012 7:33 pm

    I once thought about buying a rubber tree, but I figued it would be too much work to pick and package them….

    I want to say it was West Haven, but I could be wrong.

  12. Truesoldier__ on October 12th, 2012 7:35 pm

    When I worked on a Congressional campaign back in 2006 we used to say we need a thousand dollars to get our message out and $100,000 to correct the lies from our opponent.

  13. SignPainterGuy on October 12th, 2012 7:58 pm

    Yeah, but think how amusing it would be on windy days !

    You may be thinking of West-Henderson, a community near Hendersonville in Henderson County, the next county to the SW. They are known for their athletes, tough at football, baseball and girl`s softball. Apples are a big crop there !

  14. SignPainterGuy on October 12th, 2012 8:06 pm

    Great phrasiology ! So true !

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